The Three Basics of Successful Horse Racing Handicapping Can Be Summed Up in One Word

Though there are now computer software programs that make many calculations for handicappers, the basics haven't changed in horse racing handicapping. You can make the process of finding winners at the track as difficult or simple as you please. Betting and strategy are a whole different subject that we have discussed in other articles, so we won't go into that here.
Let's think about what a horse race is and why there are just a few basics that must be used to be successful. First of all, there is class. Class is more than just a dollar figure on a race. It also means an ability at a certain level of competition. Ability and class go hand in hand. Just because a horse ran in a $100,000 race it doesn't mean it isn't a cheap claimer. It may have trailed the field by forty lengths. Therefore, when handicapping for class, it is important to see some indications of ability.
A horse that ran in a $100,000 race and managed to run near the front of the pack in the early stages or finished within 5 lengths of the winner still may not be a $100,000 horse, but is certainly more than a $10,000 claimer. The task for the handicapper is to figure out just where in the scale between $100,000 and $10,000 that horse may fall. Therefore, it is demonstrated ability that indicates a runners true class.
Speed is another factor that must be examined. With speed figures readily available it would appear that calculating a horse's speed capability would be easy, but it isn't quite that simple. If running against horses that are superior or have much greater early speed, a horse may not run the full distance of the race as fast as it normally would against a slower pace. For instance, in a six furlong race if a runner is forced to try to keep up with horses setting a fast pace of say 46 seconds for the opening half mile, it will not have much energy to finish the race and therefore its final speed figure may be quite low.
However, the same animal in a race that has softer early fractions may stay close to the leaders, not burning itself out, and set a reasonable speed figure and final time. So the same horse who posts a figure of 70 in a $100,000 race may set a figure of 90 in a $25,000 race. Once again, speed is the ability of a horse to cover a distance in a set amount of time against competitors at a certain level.
A third factor in handicapping horse races is pace, as indicated by the scenarios presented above. The pace of a race will determine how hard a horse works in the early stages and how well it manages to finish. It is based on that animal's ability to compete against other animals and to stay within a certain distance throughout the race and then have enough energy at the end to mount a serious threat or take the lead in the stretch.
As you can see, the word 'ability' keeps cropping up and now it is also being compared to energy. The amount of energy a runner has and its ability to use that energy efficiently.
The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner.